On Forecasts

Zurich axiom: Human behavior cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

Nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Nobody. Never lose sight of the possibility you have made a bad bet.

個人解讀：只有帳戶裡的錢是真的，沒有對帳單，一切都是假的。預測正確不等於操作正確，更不等於賺錢。做對的事，做錯也沒關係，承認錯誤停損就好啦。預測是上帝的事，千萬不要妄想當上帝。