基本假說:
Past record is pertinent to the future
對於未來我們只能謙虛,我們只能靠以前表現來推斷未來,當假說破滅時,就是風險來臨時。
分析要點:
- The accounting aspect: What are the true earnings for the period studied?
- The business aspect: What indications does the earnings carry as to the future earning power of the company?
- Aspect of investment finance: What elements in the earnings exhibit must be taken into account, and what standards followed, in endeavoring to arrive at a reasonable valuation of the shares?
例子: 這家公司主要經營業務為:飼料、大宗油脂、肉品。
1. 如果是季報,理論上要揭示「僅經核閱,未依一般公認審計準則查核」。
2. In order to arrive at the indicated earning power for the period studied, the analyst should follow a standard procedure consisting of 5 steps:
- He will eliminate nonrecurrent items from a single-year analysis. But he will include most of them in a long-term analysis.
- He will exclude deductions or credits arising from the use of contingency and other arbitrary reserves.
- He will endeavor to place the depreciation (or amortization) allowance and the inventory valuation on a basis suitable for comparative study.
- He will adjust the earnings for the operations of subsidiaries and affiliates to the extent they are not shown.
- As a check, he will endeavor to reconcile the allowance for income tax with the reported earnings.
什麼是 nonrecurrent items?
書上解釋為
outside the regular course of the business. 損益表科目為銷貨收入及銷貨退回,兩者相減就是營業收入淨額,也就是
公司本業產生的收入。至於利息收入、股利收入、處分固定資產淨利益等等都是 nonrecurrent items。
然而, some nonrecurrent items should be included in the over-all results for a period of years. 例如退稅。這個科目應該補回前期的稅後淨利,補完才是正確的數字。因此
長期來看,稅後淨利加上退稅才是公司本業真正的稅後淨利。
至於跟本業無關的科目 (例如處分固定資產淨利益),就算長期來看,也不能算在公司本業獲利。
至於權益法認列之投資收益就有點曖昧,分析時要很小心。
首先,我們要能掌握公司
長期股權投資明細。公司有許多子公司,最大的子公司帳面價值有4,920,790,他能給母公司多少盈餘呢?106,441 (去年是 288,089),年化後約有2.88%報酬率 (去年是 7.55%)。
接著,就可以評估長期股權投資 earning power。
3. 可以參考原有的股票投資策略