損益表分析補充 [Graham & Dodd]

基本假說:

Past record is pertinent to the future

對於未來我們只能謙虛，我們只能靠以前表現來推斷未來，當假說破滅時，就是風險來臨時。

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分析要點:

1. The accounting aspect: What are the true earnings for the period studied?


2. The business aspect: What indications does the earnings carry as to the future earning power of the company?


3. Aspect of investment finance: What elements in the earnings exhibit must be taken into account, and what standards followed, in endeavoring to arrive at a reasonable valuation of the shares?

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例子: 這家公司主要經營業務為：飼料、大宗油脂、肉品。

1. 如果是季報，理論上要揭示「僅經核閱，未依一般公認審計準則查核」。

2. In order to arrive at the indicated earning power for the period studied, the analyst should follow a standard procedure consisting of 5 steps:

• He will eliminate nonrecurrent items from a single-year analysis. But he will include most of them in a long-term analysis.
  
• He will exclude deductions or credits arising from the use of contingency and other arbitrary reserves.
  
• He will endeavor to place the depreciation (or amortization) allowance and the inventory valuation on a basis suitable for comparative study.
  
• He will adjust the earnings for the operations of subsidiaries and affiliates to the extent they are not shown.
  
• As a check, he will endeavor to reconcile the allowance for income tax with the reported earnings.

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什麼是 nonrecurrent items?

書上解釋為 outside the regular course of the business. 損益表科目為銷貨收入及銷貨退回，兩者相減就是營業收入淨額，也就是公司本業產生的收入。至於利息收入、股利收入、處分固定資產淨利益等等都是 nonrecurrent items。

然而, some nonrecurrent items should be included in the over-all results for a period of years. 例如退稅。這個科目應該補回前期的稅後淨利，補完才是正確的數字。因此長期來看，稅後淨利加上退稅才是公司本業真正的稅後淨利。

至於跟本業無關的科目 (例如處分固定資產淨利益)，就算長期來看，也不能算在公司本業獲利。

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至於權益法認列之投資收益就有點曖昧，分析時要很小心。

首先，我們要能掌握公司長期股權投資明細。公司有許多子公司，最大的子公司帳面價值有4,920,790，他能給母公司多少盈餘呢？106,441 (去年是 288,089)，年化後約有2.88%報酬率 (去年是 7.55%)。

接著，就可以評估長期股權投資 earning power。

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3. 可以參考原有的股票投資策略