Berkshire Shareholder Letters 2011 (Investments)

心得：

• 昨天我很懷疑 Berkshire 為什麼買 IBM，原來是看中經營者的能力、穩定創造盈餘的能力、以及購回自家股票的財務操作。這樣就有買進的理由了。
  
• (Page 17) Investing is forgoing consumption now in order to have the ability to consume more at a later date. Corollary: The riskiness of an investment is not measured by beta but rather by the probability – the reasoned probability – of that investment causing its owner a loss of purchasing-power over his contemplated holding period. 投資主要目的就是保護未來的購買力，而不是在未來賺錢。考慮通膨，名目上賺錢，實質上賠錢。例子：存錢賺銀行利息，雖然有利息收入，但實際上賠掉未來購買力。一般認為銀行存款十分安全，實際上很危險，物價上漲幅度遠超過銀行可憐的利率。若我們是上班族，應該思考讓死薪水成長快一點，讓加薪抵過通膨。
  
• 雖然 currency-based investments 不好，我自己也有做一些，但為了流動性，有時不得不把錢放在銀行，以備將來買進好股票。(難不成領回家放在床頭嗎？)更何況企業為了投資向銀行借錢，還是得鼓勵一般民眾把錢存在銀行裡，企業投資賺大錢，股東才有機會撈到錢，這就是資本主義的運作原理。
  
  Currency-based investments 不好，但我鼓勵大家多多投資 currency-based investments，夠壞心吧。
  

  Bonds promoted as offering risk-free returns are now priced to deliver return-free risk.

• The second major category of investments involves assets that will never produce anything, but that are purchased in the buyer’s hope that someone else will pay more for them in the future. 例子：黃金。台北房地產不是例子喔，因為房子可以出租賺取租金。

  What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.

  大家要小心一點。(金價歷史)
  
• 最後一類是 investment in productive assets, whether businesses, farms, or real estate，也是 Berkshire 喜愛的一類。這類資產與人緊密結合，通膨是人的產物，這些資產理論上也能抵抗通膨，保持未來的購買力。理論上啦，話千萬不能說死。

  I believe that over any extended period of time this category of investing will prove to be the runaway winner among the three we’ve examined. More important, it will be by far the safest.

  講到最後都是信仰的問題，我相信了，而且掏出錢來相信，就這麼簡單。不過台股這一波應該沒有太好的進場點，不如尋找好股票，等待好價格出現吧。