[心得] Things to Consider About EPS

參考書籍：B. Graham, The Intelligent Investor，傳說中不可愛的書。

心得：

• Don’t take a single year’s earnings seriously. 如果單季年化 EPS 大於年度 EPS，我們得懷疑內情並不單純，可以試著從財務報表挖掘真相。若為 nonrecurring operation results，是否影響未來盈餘能力。例如出售未使用廠房，倘若未來經濟情勢好轉，企業是否有生產要素增加產能？
  
  此外，假如財務報表刻意隱瞞真相，用不正當的方式操控盈餘，那麼我們就應該唾棄不誠實的企業。假如企業經營高層發表興奮的活水，我們得審慎考慮數據的真實性，不可輕易相信沒有根據的財務預測。
• If you do pay attention to short-term earnings, look out for booby traps in the per-share figures.
• 保守原則：It must be assumed that the conversion privilege will be exercised if it should prove profitable to the bondholders to do so. 雖然市場有很多傻瓜，但不是每個人都是傻瓜。
• 巴菲特詬病的財務操作 (及其變形)：
  

  Years ago the strong companies used to set up “contingency reserves” out of the profits of good years to absorb some of the bad effects of depression years to come. The underlying idea was to equalize the reported earnings, more or less, and to improve the stability factor in the company’s record.

  這意味著就算 EPS 表現正常，也不能掉以輕心，我們要挖掘真實的 EPS，正直的財務報表得揭露這件事。(The management and the auditors should have given us their best judgment on this point.)
  
• 真實 EPS 被扭曲的因子
  
  • The use of special charges, which may never be reflected in the per-share earnings.
    
  • The reduction in the normal income-tax deduction by reason of past losses.
    
  • The dilution factor implicit in the existence of substantial amounts of convertible securities or warrants.
    
  • Has had a significant effect on reported earnings in the past is the method of treating depreciation—chiefly as between the “straight-line” and the “accelerated” schedules.
    
• 閱讀財報的技巧
  
  • Read backwards - 隱惡揚善是人類的本能。
    
  • Read the notes - 許多書的附註比內文重要，財報也不例外，魔鬼藏在細節裡。
    
  • Read more - 風險就是不懂的東西，懂得越多風險越低。書上又列一堆書單，如果再看下去，最近我就沒有時間了。