巴菲特寫給股東的信 2007之一

因為「巴菲特寫給股東的信」只有寫到 2006，只好苦命地把 2007-2011補齊，並且祈禱巴菲特不要被時間回收。

對了，先岔個題，有人問道「大幅增加資本支出就是利多嗎？」基本上問這個就掛了，把股票當樂透是不對的（若P則Q，最好是啦，五萬學費告訴我是錯的，別再偷懶了），擁有股票等同於擁有公司的部分權利，對於自己的公司，我們只關心「事業主盈餘」，也就是「公告盈餘」加上「非現金費用」（折舊、攤提等等），最後再減掉「為維持競爭力的資本支出」。

因此事業主盈餘與產業密不可分。如果是面板業，為了維持競爭力，每隔幾年就會大幅增加資本支出，通常一元的資本支出，並不能為企業帶來大於一元的盈餘，帳面上我們可以看到盈餘不斷成長，實質上事業主盈餘不斷下滑。

很可惜很多傻瓜只看帳面上的盈餘。

另一個例子是超商。為了維持競爭力，增加資本支出表示企業展店，但一間店大可營業五年，不用額外成本支出，這種一次到位的資本支出，才有機會是「股價利多」。股價與企業價值不見得成正比，但最終會貼近。

結論就是：看產業。產業對，企業價值就有機會成長（股價可能上上下下）。

岔好遠。

• Unfortunately, this wish was promptly granted, as just about all Americans came to believe that house prices would forever rise. 美國不能，台北房地產能，過去是金本位，現在是美金本位，未來是台北房地產本位（以上大家不要當真）
• 部位過大的困擾（我應該還差很遠吧）：Berkshire’s past record can’t be duplicated or even approached. Our base of assets and earnings is now far too large for us to make outsized gains in the future. 雖然講的很驕傲，不過要想為什麼？小池塘來一隻大白鯊，池塘水都光了。
• Charlie and I look for companies that have a) a business we understand; b) favorable long-term economics; c) able and trustworthy management; and d) a sensible price tag. We like to buy the whole business or, if management is our partner, at least 80%. When control-type purchases of quality aren’t available, though, we are also happy to simply buy small portions of great businesses by way of stockmarket purchases. It’s better to have a part interest in the Hope Diamond than to own all of a rhinestone. 重複了，但還是很重要，雖然我們沒辦法買很多股份，但至少前面四條原則與「股份」多寡無關，這是令人高興的事，這表示我們有機會實做「大原則」，光說不練是假功夫，只有把上百、上千萬的錢拿出來實驗，才有真正的意義。當然要小心賠的一屁股啦，還好我屁股比較大，不怕（抖）。
• If a business requires a superstar to produce great results, the business itself cannot be deemed great.（幹麻偷婊紅茶店，真壞，哈哈，躺著也中槍）
• Long-term competitive advantage in a stable industry is what we seek in a business. Now let’s move to the gruesome. The worst sort of business is one that grows rapidly, requires significant capital to engender the growth, and then earns little or no money.（要提防這種怪獸企業）To sum up, think of three types of “savings accounts.” The great one pays an extraordinarily high interest rate that will rise as the years pass. The good one pays an attractive rate of interest that will be earned also on deposits that are added. Finally, the gruesome account both pays an inadequate interest rate and requires you to keep adding money at those disappointing returns.

通常之二之後都會被我賴掉，東西太多了，殘念呀。