The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville 心得

Link: http://www.tilsonfunds.com/superinvestors.html

They search for discrepancies between the value of a business and the price of small pieces of that business in the market.

這就是 Graham-and-Doddsville 的哲學。市價 = 實質 + 預測，通常我們會高估預測，忽略實質。如果我們肯定實質，那就應該等待大家悲觀的時候（金融風暴、戰爭等等）買進實質。市場循環會從悲觀走到樂觀，再從樂觀走到悲觀，如此循環，造就我們的機會。對於實質的計算，Ben Graham 建議大家以區間計算。例如我看好 2412，合理買進區間可能是 70 ～75。

I always find it extraordinary that so many studies are made of price and volume behavior, the stuff of chartists. Can you imagine buying an entire business simply because the price of the business had been marked up substantially last week and the week before?

這個我中過招了，這招以前很準，現在不太準，當太多人使用技術分析，容易有既成事實效應，有心人也會操縱線圖，誘使新手跳入陷阱，新手不斷研究各行各業的技術指標，只為了打敗假指標，這無疑在浪費時間和金錢。或許有人因此賺到錢，但對我來說，這讓我賠了一些。當然，線圖仍有價值，端看怎麼運用，例如我會看大方向，市場本益比變動趨勢、台股市值除以GNP計算股市熱度、台股指數量價變化，都能透露市場當時的情緒。

基本上還是看準市場悲觀進場。現在不管怎麼看，我都很難用七位數台幣進場。

It is extraordinary to me that the idea of buying dollar bills for 40 cents takes immediately to people or it doesn't take at all.

這裡有一批好便宜的牛肉。In fact, market prices are frequently nonsensical. Now, if the stock had declined even further to a price that made the valuation $40 million instead of $80 million, its beta would have been greater. And to people that think beta measures risk, the cheaper price would have made it look riskier. 為什麼 beta 無用，就是這個道理，太依賴 price 的東西，越難看出 value。