巴菲特指標 (2011.4.22)

巴菲特指標 = 股票市值/GNP.

根據台灣證券交易所「市值週報」顯示，本週末初估整體總市值為 238,305.86 億元。

再根據中華民國統計資訊網「國內生產毛額與國民所得」顯示，國民生產毛額 GNP (按當年價格計算)99年(p)為 14,044,163 百萬元。因此巴菲特指標 = 170%。巴菲特說：

• If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you.
• If the ratio approaches 200% -- as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000 -- you are playing with fire.

如果將來漲到 10553點，那真的是 playing with fire。