「可是瑞凡，我回不去了」

謝安真回不去了，許多新股也回不去了。

「交易員的靈魂」裡頭談到 [P267]:

1. 新掛牌公司有 63% 9個月內盈餘營收雙雙衰退
2. 即使沒有衰退，其中 23% 一年後還是步入衰退
3. 四年多來，只有 9.95% 有長期的投資價值

最近某 TDR 掛牌上市，假裝我不知道「交易員的靈魂」P267的內容，我該不該進場投資呢？不該，理由：

1. 沒有財務報表，無法分析公司
2. 不玩看不懂的東西，也就是 the secret of GAMBONI

什麼是 GAMBONI？故事很長，但很有啟發性，不看完會後悔一輩子。

Joe was a card player, a good one. He was so good, in fact, that he had to move from city to city and find games where he wasn’t known in order to play for high stakes. One afternoon, in a bar in the suburbs of Chicago, he’s shooting the breeze with the bartender and asks, “Say, where can I find a good card game around here?”

“What kind of stakes are you talking about?”

“Big,” Joe says, “the biggest game you know about.”

“Well now, I hear there’s a game out in the farm country. It’s a bit of a drive, but these particular farmers play for big money. Let me make a call and see if it’s OK.”

So the bartender makes the call, and then gives Joe directions to the game. That evening, after a long drive, Joe pulls up to this barn in the middle of nowhere. Tentatively, he walks inside, tiptoeing around the fetid piles on the floor. At the back of the barn, he spots a partially open door, with light and smoke pouring through the opening. The familiar rush of anticipation and energy sweeps through him as he enters the room and introduces himself.

Farmers in overalls sit around the table, chewing cigars and puffing their pipes. In a quick glance, Joe estimates the current pot to be about $40,000 - perfect. So he sits down. “Ante up,” says the farmer holding the deck of cards. And Joe begins to play.

About an hour later, Joe is holding is own. He is about even when he draws three aces and two queens - a full house. With a large pot already on the table, he raises $15,000. The next two guys fold, but the leather-faced farmer across the table calls him and raises another $15,000, without so much as batting an eye. Joe, certain that the guy us bluffing, calls the bet and lays down his aces-high full house. The farmer lays down junk: three clubs and two diamonds of mixed numbered cards. Joe, suppressing a smile, starts to rake in the pot. “Wait just a darn minute,” says the farmer, a stern and reprimanding tone in his voice. “Whattaya mean, wait a minute,” says Joe, “you got nothin.”

“Take a look at the sign over your right shoulder,” smiles the farmer.

Joe looks:

THREE CLUBS AND TWO DIAMONDS CONSTITUTE A GAMBONI, THE TOP WINNING HAND IN THIS ESTABLISHMENT.

Joe is really angry, but after all, rules are rules, so he continues to play with what is left of his holdings. About an hour later, he draws three clubs and two diamonds ... a Gamboni! He bets everything, and on the final round of betting with the same leather- faced farmer, he has to throw in his solid gold Rolex to make the call. The farmer turns over his cards, a queen-high spade flush. Joe turns over his Gamboni and starts to rake in the pot.

“Hold it there, fella,” says the farmer, his grin cutting deep lines in his cheeks. “But I got a Gamboni!” cries an exasperated Joe.

“Sure ‘enough, but look at the sign over there,” and he points over Joe’s left shoulder.

Joe looks:

ONLY ONE GAMBONI WILL BE PERMITTED PER NIGHT IN THIS ESTABLISHMENT.

Joe, broke but thankful for the invention of credit cards, leaves the barn with dung on his shoes, and the leather-faced farmer drives his tractor home feeling the weight of a solid gold Rolex on his wrist.

So the secret of the Gamboni is this: if you want to win, you’ve got to know the rules; and also, you can’t win if you’re not at the table.”

如果你希望獲勝，你必須瞭解規則；另外，你必須願意坐上賭桌，你才有獲勝的機會。TDR是啥？看不懂就不要投資，就這麼簡單。如果知道 TDR 是啥，也不要太興奮，四年多來，新掛牌公司只有 9.95% 有長期的投資價值。