Stock Selection for the Defensive Investor

七大選股標準，缺一不可：

• Adequate Size of the Enterprise：排除小公司
• A Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition：流動比率大於二，長期負債小於營運資本（對公共企業來說，負債小於兩倍股東權益）
• Earnings Stability：十年都有正盈餘
• Dividend Record：二十年都發股利
• Earnings Growth：近三年平均 EPS 要比十年前三年平均 EPS 還要高出三分之一
• Moderate Price/Earnings Ratio：（市價因素）Current price should not be more than 15 times average earnings of the past three years. 本益比不能過高，最好不要超過 15
• Moderate Ratio of Price to Assets：（市價因素）Current price should not be more than 1.5 times the book value last reported. P/B 不超過 1.5

前面四個標準保證幾件事（換句話說）：Exclude companies that are (1) too small, (2) in relatively weak financial condition, (3) with a deficit stigma in their ten-year record, and (4) not having a long history of continuous dividends. 第五點與盈餘有關，盈餘要有成長。最後兩點與市價有關，我們不能原諒買進好公司，自己卻不斷地賠錢。

有例外條款：The small deficiency here below 2 to 1 was offset by margin for additional debt financing. 這點可以原諒。

解釋市價因素選股標準（Efficient Markets Hypothesis 是不正確的）

• Our statement that the current price reflects both known facts and future expectations was intended to emphasize the double basis for market valuations.
• The future itself can be approached in two different ways, which may be called the way of prediction (or projection) and the way of protection.
• In our own attitude and professional work we were always committed to the quantitative approach. From the first we wanted to make sure that we were getting ample value for our money in concrete, demonstrable terms. We were not willing to accept the prospects and promises of the future as compensation for a lack of sufficient value in hand.

這與電視名嘴講的完全相反，因為他們採取預測觀點，遺憾的是，未來捉摸不定難以預測，我也不喜歡預測。好比說我不斷請假參加登山活動，不怕以後沒假請嗎？當然怕呀，然後呢？工作是我生命的一部份，爬山也是我生命的一部份，愛情我生命的一部份，她們彼此並不衝突，沒有誰比較重要的問題。

我不擔心未來。

真的。

除了愛情。

最後再補充一下 Page 114 - 115 的材料 (Rules for the Common-Stock Component)：

• There should be adequate though not excessive diversification. This might mean a minimum of ten different issues and a maximum of about thirty.
• Each company selected should be large, prominent, and conservatively financed. Indefinite as these adjectives must be, their general sense is clear.
• Each company should have a long record of continuous dividend payments. (至少十年都有發股利)(適當及穩定的股利報酬)
• The investor should impose some limit on the price he will pay for an issue in relation to its average earnings over, say, the past seven years. We suggest that this limit be set at 25 times such average earnings, and not more than 20 times those of the last twelve-month period. (如此一來，牛市時期很多好股票都不能買，的確如此，買貴會喪失安全邊際，請留意)(穩定而充足的盈餘紀錄 + 足夠的有形資產保障)
  

等等，這章好像是 Security Analysis 的大地圖！我得重看 Security Analysis 了！