系統性風險 - Japan’s nuclear crisis.

就算碰到那麼艱難的情況，我們依然要冷靜，並且相信知識就是力量。雖然媒體照片不會騙人，但眾人評論大可不用盡信。

目前地球上最危險的地方就是 Fukushima Daiichi Power Plant，裡面有 6 個 nuclear reactors，就紐約時報的資料來看:

• Reactor 1: The outer building is damaged and it is presumed that there was a partial meltdown. Small amounts of radioactivity have been vented.


• Reactor 2: A partial meltdown is presumed to have occurred. The containment vessel has been breached and some radioactivity has vented.


• Reactor 3: The reactor building has been damaged, the containment vessel may have ruptured and radioactive steam may be being released.


• Reactor 4: Spent fuel rods in a water pool may have become exposed to air, emitting radioactive gases. An explosion and fire have damaged the building.


• Reactor 5: The reactor is shut down and the building is not damaged. But there is concern that spent fuel in the building may become exposed to air.


• Reactor 6: The reactor is shut down and the building is not damaged. But there is concern that spent fuel in the building may become exposed to air.

冷卻系統是核能電廠的救命丸，如果反應棒冷卻下來，那就太完美了。不過紐約時報寫的保守，實際情況可能更糟。我們不是神，不能預測未來，也無法保證系統性風險已獲得控制，人類真的太脆弱了。

至於股票市場，不論有沒有系統性風險，目前巴菲特指標約為 162%，請自行判斷風險。