2012年3月10日 星期六

Security Analysis Part II Chapter 16 (Assets)

1. 標題雖然是 Balance-sheet analysis,但各類財務報表應具有同等的重要程度,不得強調某一報表比其他報表重要。

2. Balance-sheet 提供的訊息 (原來我以前敲過)
  • It shows in nearly all cases how much capital is actually invested in the business, and how the capital structure is divided between senior issues and common stock.
  • It reveals the strength or weakness of the working-capital position.
  • It provides a check upon the validity of the earnings reported in the income account.
  • It supplies data to test the true success or prosperity of the business - viz., the amount earned on invested capital.
  • It supplies the basis for analyzing the sources of income and the relation of earning-power value to asset value.
  • It supplies the basis for a long-term study of the relationship between earning power and asset values and of the development of the financial structure over the years.

3. 最好的例子都在公開資訊觀測站。我以宏達電合併財務報表為範本,仔細推敲 Graham 談的事情。宏達電(2498)近四季股東權益報酬率 = 84.79%,漂亮。P/B = 5.11,K = 16.59%,具有長期投資條件。有好條件不一定要做多,雖然我不喜歡王雪紅的選前發言,也不喜歡 hTC 智慧型手機,但這與投資無關,只要會抓老鼠的都是好貓。也請參考 Apple Inc. 的資產負債表,比較比較。

4. 資產負債表:左邊是「資產」,右邊是「負債」及「股東權益」,滿足「資產」=「負債」+「股東權益」方程式。若覺得難以想像,可以想成自己開宏達電公司。公司剛起步,跟股東收取資本,資產負債表該如何登記,等等。這樣就有身歷其境的感覺。請多多發揮想像力

5. Cash & Equivalents (現金及約當現金):宏達電有四種現金及約當現金:庫存現金、支票存款、活期存款、定期存款。佔總資產 34%。現金過多不是好事,這代表公司無法利用閒置現金 (資產) 創造更多盈餘。(想像自己開公司,把股東的錢全存在銀行,這樣還要你這間公司做啥?空頭公司嗎?當然要把股東的錢拿去投資,創造豐厚的盈餘,讓股東跟員工開心。)

6. Inventory (存貨):Current Assets (流動資產) 主項除了 Cash & Equivalents,還有 Receivables (應收帳款) 及 Inventory (存貨)。以宏達電來說,存貨基本上就是智慧型手機和失敗的平板。電子產品生命周期普遍不長 (除非是殺手級手機),但 hTC 手機也非一文不值,只要好好賣,就能創造不錯的盈餘。宏達電的存貨是資產嗎?我覺得比較像燙手山芋。如果宏達電改賣石油,雖然石油價值常有波動,但石油絕不會一文不值,反而可視為公司的真正資產。

7. Receivables (應收帳款):Where receivables play a large part in the company's business, special care should be given to the examination of the treatment of the item on the balance sheet. 宏達電的應收帳款佔總資產 11%,Apple Inc. 也差不多是這個規模,合理。

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